Innovation Fund Doubles Down in Market Lull

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  • June 13, 2025

In the evolving landscape of China's financial markets, the introduction of the Xin Chuang Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) marks a significant development. As the first set of these ETFs began their journey on August 26, just five business days after their registration, seven prominent fund companies including Yi Fang Da, Hua Xia, Guang Fa, Fu Guo, Hui Tian Fu, Guo Tai, and Hua Bao received approval. This quick acceptance reflects a growing interest in the sector known for its technological advancements, particularly in the realms of computer science and defense.

The core of these ETFs revolves around two specific Xin Chuang indices. Notably, products from Yi Fang Da, Guang Fa, Fu Guo, and Guo Tai closely track the National Chen Xin Chuang Index, while those from Hua Xia, Hui Tian Fu, and Hua Bao correlate with the Zhong Zheng Xin Chuang Index. Understanding the distinctions between these indices is crucial as they influence strategy and investment decisions across various stakeholders.

Prior to this surge in ETF activity, the Shin Chuang sector had been on a rollercoaster ride. After a remarkable performance in the last quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, where both indices boasted increases of over 50%, the market faced a downturn, with both indices experiencing declines of approximately 19% by September 5, creating a cloud of uncertainty for investors. The sector that was once hailed as the “best performer” has now stumbled, and market analysts are examining the underlying trends.

The investor enthusiasm around these indices showcases both trust and skepticism. While the newer ETFs exhibit a similar pool of 50 constituent stocks—18 of which are common to both indices—each index has a unique composition and industry representation. For instance, stocks like Kingsoft Office and Inspur Information are found across both indices, but they diverge when it comes to industry breadth. The Zhong Zheng Xin Chuang Index is heavily weighted in computer technology, defense, and electronics, while the National Chen Xin Chuang Index explores a wider array of sectors including machinery and telecommunications.

As of the halfway point of 2023, the market capitalization for the Zhong Zheng Xin Chuang Index represented approximately 43.5% of the National Chen Xin Chuang Index’s size, suggesting a more concentrated investment approach within the latter. The stock composition also highlighted this; with most stocks falling under the technology umbrella, the emphasis on broadening exposure remains critical for investors seeking risk diversification.

In the financial performance arena, both indices have shown ominous trends in earnings and profit figures in recent months. While Zhong Zheng Xin Chuang index stocks generated aggregate revenues of 1,296 billion yuan with a slight profit increase, National Chen Xin Chuang index companies reported a decrease in net profit margins. Historical analysis reveals variability, with National Chen Xin Chuang having demonstrated stronger revenue and profit growth over three years; reflecting a solid recovery from previous downturns.

Valuation metrics also provide critical insights for potential investors. As of early September 2023, both indices exhibited high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios: 107.11 and 139.29 respectively, indicating investors' expectations of future growth despite the current downturn in earnings. The high P/E ratios could deter risk-averse investors but may entice those looking for growth potential. Furthermore, it's essential to analyze how public funds have allocated resources in these sectors amidst the fluctuating market sentiment.

Research reveals that, by the end of the second quarter, public fund allocations to the Zhong Zheng index decreased by approximately 15.59%, indicating reduced confidence in this segment as compared to the index's decline of 7.38%. However, the ongoing investments reflect a bullish inclination, as their share of total A-share assets remained robust, representing a 3.25% allocation within A-shares, a proportion that is notably higher than its share of total market capitalization.

Interestingly, while many individual stocks saw reduced positions from fund managers, Kingsoft Office, as the leading holding across public funds, showcased resilience with a value of nearly 308 billion yuan, though even it experienced a minor reduction in holdings. Similarly, Guang Ning and Na Si Da also saw exits in parts of their positions. Contrasting experiences emerged for the National Chen Xin Chuang sector, which showed minor reinvestment with particularly favorable outcomes in the telecommunications sector.

Investments from foreign capital, known as "Northbound capital," exhibit a more cautious approach as well. By mid-2023, their overall holdings in the Zhong Zheng index diminished slightly, with a holding of 4.49% by the end of the first half. Notably, both technology and defense sectors saw declines in foreign investors' proportional interests, highlighting prevailing uncertainty or strategic redirection. Despite some exits, stocks like Hang Seng Electronics remained supportive of foreign investment trends within this sphere.

As the third quarter opens, both indices are likely to see a continuation of these trends. The question remains whether the technological heartland represented by these ETFs will rebound, drawing back both local and international investors or if the hesitations faced across sectors will continue to stifle liquidity and growth. Each decision will be vital as stakeholders navigate these rapid changes in consequence to macroeconomic shifts and regional industry developments.

In conclusion, the Xin Chuang ETFs journey exemplifies a microcosm of larger market conditions, illuminating investor sentiment and financial articulations in China’s evolving economic landscape. As competition among financial products intensifies and investor discernment sharpens, the evolution of these ETFs will serve as critical indicators for trends and strategies in navigating future financial landscapes.

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